2023 championship position: 2nd, 409 points

Speedcafe’s 2024 championship prediction: 3rd

Mercedes headed into the European winter poised to develop an all-new car for the forthcoming season.

That came off the back of two difficult seasons, by its own lofty measure, with a design that proved difficult to get on top of.

Changes at last year’s Monaco Grand Prix saw the team take a half step towards a ‘Red Bull’ solution having persisted with its ‘zero-pod’ solution for longer than it probably should.

Another update followed and, by year-end, the car was good enough to lift Mercedes above Ferrari in the constructors’ championship. A good result for the team.

But it has higher targets and to achieve those means changing direction and addressing some of the issues the W14 experienced.

That includes moving the driver’s seating position, which Lewis Hamilton argued left him feeling disconnected from the rear of the car.

It’s a comparatively subtle change, a matter of millimetres, but in the hyper-competitive F1 field, getting the most out of the driver can make the difference.

Mercedes has also reverted to its former technical director, with James Allison coming back into the fray during the 2023 season in place of Mike Elliott (the two effectively swapped jobs, though Elliott has since left the operation).

So, in theory, the team has everything in place; the technical leadership, a design direction, two top-tier drivers, and the facilities and capabilities to deliver what is needed.

The only trouble is it is doing so a year, or arguably two, later than some of its rivals.

Ferrari is always an unknown, and its 2023 car had its own issues that need to be sorted, while McLaren found a rich seam of development last season that should carry into the coming car.

Hypothetically, that puts Mercedes at a disadvantage as it works to catch up to the gains McLaren and Red Bull Racing have made over the past 12 months or more.

And it’s doing so with a new concept in terms of design, something that is always a risk.

While the end point for that design might be a better car in the long term, there will invariably be a period of adjusting and learning the lessons its rivals already know.

As a result, it’s reasonable to expect a small step backwards as the team looks to go forwards.