New chassis rules, major power unit changes and a completely revised technical framework mean 2026 represents a genuine reset for the competitive order, with teams arriving at Albert Park uncertain of the true pecking order.

All eyes will naturally fall on McLaren, with reigning world champion Lando Norris beginning his title defence after winning both the 2025 championship and last year’s race in Melbourne.

But history suggests the challenge will not be straightforward.

No driver has won back-to-back Australian Grands Prix since Sebastian Vettel in 2017 and 2018, with Jenson Button (2009–2010) and Michael Schumacher (2000–2002) the only others to achieve consecutive wins in Australia this millennium.

Norris will also look to defy a recent Melbourne trend, with the previous year’s Australian Grand Prix winner having failed to finish the following season’s race since the AGP returned after its 2020 cancellation.

While Norris aims to extend his winning run, the home crowd will be firmly focused on Oscar Piastri, who enters the weekend seeking to become the first Australian to win — or finish on the podium — at his home Grand Prix in the world championship era.

Daniel Ricciardo finished on the podium in 2014, but was later disqualified, leaving his and Mark Webber’s multiple fourth-place finishes as the best results by an Australian at Albert Park.

With the regulations reset and the field expected to be closer than in recent seasons, predicting a winner in Melbourne is far from straightforward.

Testing has suggested performance gaps could be compressed, with teams still uncovering the strengths and weaknesses of their 2026 packages.

Ferrari has shown strong pre-season pace, while Mercedes appears poised to challenge for wins and the championship based on their expected form.

Red Bull Racing remains a threat with Max Verstappen behind the wheel, while attention will also turn to two new additions to the grid, with Audi taking over Sauber and Cadillac joining as the 11th team, the first completely new entry since Haas F1 Team in 2016.

Albert Park has traditionally rewarded strong qualifying pace and race execution, and with new rules in place, strategy and adaptability could prove just as important as outright speed.

With history, recent form and a major technical reset all in play, this weekend could deliver a new name at the top, or reinforce the established order.

So, this week we’re asking: who will win the Australian Grand Prix?