Mercedes technical director James Allison feels the next few months will be crucial for the team in determining whether it will again be able to challenge Red Bull going into the 2024 F1 season.
After winning a record eight consecutive F1 constructors’ titles from 2014 through to 2021, Mercedes has been forced to play second fiddle to an all-conquering Red Bull following the introduction of new aerodynamic regulations at the start of last season.
Mercedes has attempted to play catch up with its major rival over the intervening period, leading to a major developmental direction change earlier this year upon which it is continuing to build.
The final phase of that assault will be unveiled at this weekend’s United States Grand Prix with the introduction of a new floor, with the hope it will provide a platform upon which it can continue to make strides going into 2024.
After a lengthy period of time attempting to close the gap to a dominant Red Bull, speaking on the F1 Nation podcast, Allison said: “We are pretty hopeful we have got a good handle on what has been ailing us.
“Therefore, we are pretty confident that we know which direction to head in for next season.
“But that leads to an open question – let’s say we are dead right, and we know exactly where we are heading.
“Can we actually walk that path fast enough to overhaul a pretty dominant Red Bull and pop our noses in front? That’s our challenge, more so than being confident about where we are heading.
“I think we are heading in the right place but the challenge, and that’s what makes this part of the year so breathlessly brilliant, is: Can we not just walk along that path but fair sprint it for the next several months.”
Allison is confident enough to suggest Mercedes will at least be on a par with McLaren over the final five races of this season, starting with the latest sprint weekend at Austin’s Circuit of the Americas.
McLaren has delivered on a remarkable level since the introduction of a major upgrade package at the Austrian GP, and which was further enhanced ahead of the race in Singapore.
At the last race in Qatar, McLaren outperformed Red Bull, with Oscar Piastri leading a one-three in the sprint with team-mate Lando Norris, and a two-three in the grand prix.
As to whether the upgraded floor on the W14s this weekend will deliver more pace on and haul Mercedes closer to McLaren, or whether it will help steer the design direction for next season, Allison added: “Neither of those things.
“It should be good at any circuit for the remainder of the year. It’s not transformative, (it) should be about a tenth of a second.
“It’s in the direction we think is decent, both for producing downforce in the right place, and hopefully being resistant to the bounciness that all these cars nibble at as soon as you try and get much downforce from them.”
As to battling with McLaren for the remainder of this campaign, Allison remarked: “We were pretty much on their pace – not quicker than them, not slower than them – but ahead of them in Qatar.
“In ordinary circumstances, they would have out-qualified us had they not had their track limits debacle with one car.
“If we did Qatar over and over and over again, we probably would have been (third and fifth) because I think we would have been interleaved with them. It’s close to them.
“At a Suzuka-type track, they have the edge on us. At a slower type of track, maybe we have some things they don’t.
“But I’m not sure what they have left to bring to their car. Hopefully, the floor that we are going to pop on the car in Austin could bring us up on level terms in any of the races to come.”
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