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2023 championship position: 1st, 860 points
Speedcafe’s 2024 championship prediction: 1st
The 2023 season will, with any luck, stand for some time as the most dominant performance by a team in Formula 1 history.
Max Verstappen and Red Bull Racing romped to both the drivers’ and constructors’ championships with 21 of 22 possible race wins.
It’s a performance that eclipsed McLaren’s effort in 1988 and saw Verstappen shatter records all seasons.
Such was the Dutchman’s performance Red Bull Racing could have won the constructors’ title with just his car.
That level of domination is unlikely to disappear immediately, and less so given the stable regulations for the coming year.
Red Bull Racing heads into 2024 as the runaway favourite, though it’s unlikely it will enjoy quite the same advantage.
That’s a prediction based on statistics – last year was extraordinary and something never before seen in the sport’s seven-decade history.
Repeating it will, therefore, be excruciatingly hard – and similarly difficult to watch if it does prove the case.
The only weakness Red Bull Racing displayed all season was Sergio Perez’s inconsistency.
When the Mexican was good, he was outstanding. His drives in Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan had us all wondering whether he could challenge Verstappen for the title.
But when it wasn’t his day he wasn’t able to deliver the sort of results Red Bull Racing needs and expects.
Given the pack is expected to close, the need for a competitive second driver will be heightened this season. Perez needs to perform, both for the team and his future.
In the last year of his contract, the 34-year-old is under pressure to retain his drive with several others knocking on the door.
Elsewhere, behind the scenes, little has changed for the Milton Keynes operation.
Adrian Newey remains as head of an underappreciated design team (Newey receives the bulk of the plaudits) that has demonstrated it has an extremely good understanding of the current ruleset.
The hangover from its 2022 cost cap breach is a thing of the past, and the Honda power unit is perfectly capable.
Moreover, Red Bull Racing put little energy into developing the RB19.
As it was so dominant, the team was able to divert attention to the design of this year’s car early, giving it a longer runway than most.
Of course, that means the team is relying heavily on the correlation from CFD to the wind tunnel, simulator, and track.
There’s no reason to think it’s poor necessarily, but while Red Bull Racing has introduced little in the way of upgrades to validate that, its rivals know its kit is in the right window.
McLaren, for instance, introduced large upgrades at multiple points during 2023 giving it confidence that its tools are calibrated well and performance gains found in the digital world translate on track.
Hence the decision to focus on development of the RB20 so heavily was brave, and not without risk for Red Bull Racing.
Quite what it has found over the winter remains to be seen, but we can only hope it doesn’t lead to another year of utter domination in 2024.
Still, Red Bull Racing is the firm favourite for both world championships once again.
