Lawson was drafted into Red Bull at the end of 2024 in place of Sergio Perez following the Mexican’s inability to deliver consistent points finishes.
That lack of contribution saw the Milton Keynes squad slump from a comfortable advantage in the constructors’ championship after last year’s Miami Grand Prix, to third.
It was a slide that cost Red Bull tens of millions of dollars in prize money.
Having supported Perez arguably longer than it should have, Lawson was brought in after showing promise at RB last season.
Though Yuki Tsunoda outperformed him, it was close between them.
The prevailing logic was that the inexperienced Lawson has a higher performance ceiling than his former teammate.
But two weekends into the 2025 campaign the pressure on the young New Zealander is already skyrocketing.
He failed to fire in Australia, though tricky conditions certainly didn’t help his cause, before another lacklustre performance in China.
With McLaren already holding a commanding lead in the constructors’ championship, Red Bull boss Christian Horner finds himself in exactly the position he was in six months ago with Perez.
Lawson’s plight has drawn into question his controversial appointment.
Tsunoda was more competitive in 2024 but was overlooked, largely amid concerns that his off-track demeanour would prove disruptive, not to mention question marks around whether he’d be willing to fall into line supporting Max Verstappen.
So far in 2025, the Japanese driver has again performed well, which has only heaped further pressure on his former teammate.
However, the Racing Bulls is a more comfortable car to drive, with the Red Bull RB21 much faster but also balanced on the knife-edge.
It’s that instability and narrow operating window that Lawson is struggling with.
In many respects, it mirrors the battle Perez had throughout last year, and is a car characteristic that has become increasingly prevalent since an upgrade package was delivered at the 2023 Spanish Grand Prix.
Lawson has been working to get on top of that challenge while simultaneously dealing with new venues, tricky conditions, and a lack of practice time.
However, the forthcoming Japanese Grand Prix should play to Lawson’s strengths far more than the previous two events.
The 22-year-old has raced F1 at Suzuka before and he has good knowledge of the venue following his time in Super Formula in 2023.
With three practice sessions before qualifying, there’s also plenty of track time to tune the car on a familiar circuit.
On paper, that seems to play in Lawson’s favour.
The alternative is to drop Tsunoda into the car, but that is far from risk free.
Just because he’s showing well where he is does not guarantee that it will translate across; Lawson showcases that risk perfectly.
There is no doubt that something needs to change, be that a new name at Red Bull or Lawson finding form, it’s only a matter of time, but is the Japanese Grand Prix the right time to make a change, or would Red Bull be better served by being a little more patient?
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