Lawson struggled to tame the RB21 in Melbourne and Shanghai and was swiftly made the subject of a driver “rotation” that will bring him back to Racing Bulls and Tsunoda to Red Bull.

The Japanese driver comes to the top team with four full seasons of experience as opposed to the New Zealander’s meagre 11 starts before beginning the 2025 season.

Red Bull has put a stake in the ground and said Tsunoda will see out the season in the RB21. Whether they hold true to their word will be worth the watch alone.

It’s sink or swim for the 24-year-old. Succeed, and he’ll likely keep his seat at Red Bull into 2026. Fail, and there’s every chance he could be back at Racing Bulls, or dumped out of the program completely.

Red Bull will soon be Ford-powered. Rumours have persisted that Tsunoda may find himself at a Honda-aligned team in years to come, and Lawson’s promotion to Red Bull alongside Max Verstappen seemed to suggest that their long-term view was the young Kiwi.

Separate to Tsunoda’s situation, Lawson will have his own battle with Isack Hadjar to prove he’s still the best candidate to be Verstappen’s teammate.

Tsunoda has a few aces up his sleeve for his Red Bull debut. He’ll be at his home race, the Japanese Grand Prix, at a circuit he knows well, Suzuka – so there’s that.

There’s also his sheer volume of experience of four years in Formula 1, plus a brief test with Red Bull in one of its contemporary cars – albeit, not in the RB21 monster.

So what’s against him? Suzuka isn’t a forgiving circuit by any means. It’s one of the oldest on the calendar and notorious for its narrow passages and nearby walls.

Debuting in the RB21 at his home grand prix could have consequences – positive or negative. He may thrive in the environment of his home race or crumble under the weight of expectation.

Tsunoda is known to be a hot head, something Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko hasn’t been afraid to say was one reason why he wasn’t picked for Red Bull in the first place.

There’s every chance Lawson could beat Tsunoda in Japan. The VCARB 02 is said to be a friendlier Formula 1 car to drive, which has evidenced by Tsunoda and Hadjar to date. Whether Red Bull gave Lawson enough time to adapt is another argument entirely. There’ll certainly be no hiding for Tsunoda.

So what do you think? Will Tsunoda outperform Lawson at Red Bull? Cast your vote below in the Pirtek Poll.