On paper, Zane Smith was a logical pick having proven himself more than capable in a Cup car, yet he’s been snubbed for oval racing newcomer Shane van Gisbergen.

Ultimately, commercial considerations and the probability of success put van Gisbergen leaps and bounds ahead of Smith, despite the Supercar champion’s relative oval inexperience.

What van Gisbergen brings that Smith doesn’t is a guarantee that he will be a contender for wins on road courses and street circuits.

Next year’s regular season will likely feature four non-oval races Circuit of the Americas, Sonoma, Chicago, and Mexico City at a minimum.

Those are four good opportunities for van Gisbergen to book a place in the playoffs.

According to NASCAR veteran Denny Hamlin, 16th in the playoffs guarantees a $1.5 million ($1 million USD) payout.

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Consider also that the Round of 16 and Round 12 both feature road course races at Watkins Glen and the Charlotte Roval, then there is every chance van Gisbergen could make the Round of 8. With that comes even more prize money opportunities.

Sponsorship implications are also worth considering. Van Gisbergen’s knack for non-ovals should come with considerable demand for sponsors to be on a car that they know will be a factor for wins.

“Trackhouse brought SVG in last year and started this long-term plan to try to get him into Cup one day and they were going to see how it played out through other series,” said Denny Hamlin on his podcast Actions Detrimental.

“I don’t think that there’s any question that SVG can get you into the playoffs as long as road courses are on the schedule. We talked about the financial implications of that, that’s a factor. There’s a commercial decision to be made as well as an intellectual decision.

“I think that they [Trackhouse Racing] feel that this is their best path and there’s a lot of things that go into it. We cannot run these cars without sponsorship and so if SVG has a leg up on sponsorship and you’re already thinking ‘Well, its fifty-fifty’ then you’re going to make a commercial decision and I understand that.”

Hamlin expects van Gisbergen will make the playoffs in his debut season. However, he said he would be surprised if the Kiwi is higher than 25th.

“If SVG is top 25 in points next year I would be shocked, I really would, but he’s likely just going to go win a road course and find themselves 16th or better,” said Hamlin.

“As long as they keep multiple road course in the playoffs he could get to the top eight.”

The Joe Gibbs Racing driver said he has been impressed with how van Gisbergen has progressed in less than a year.

Van Gisbergen has already locked himself into the Xfinity Series playoffs this year and has three wins at Sonoma, Portland, and Chicago.

“It takes time to learn. What I can appreciate is when I watch Xfinity races, SVG does for the most part take care of his equipment and he gets better as the race goes. That’s all you can really ask from him,” said Hamlin.

“I think this is really just a decision to say, ‘Okay, well, he’s going to be our best path to do what we want to accomplish in the short-term. Let’s see how this call pans out. Can he continue to get better on the ovals’ and I think he will.”

Van Gisbergen will continue his season at Darlington Raceway where he will compete in the Cup Series and Xfinity Series.

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