Verstappen’s unexpected victory at Lusail kept his chances of a fifth straight crown alive and dragged all three contenders into a showdown reminiscent of 2010 — the last time more than two drivers entered the finale with a shot at the title.
McLaren looked poised to make it a two-horse race after locking out the front row in Qatar, but their choice not to pit under an early Safety Car left both cars exposed.
Despite dominating the weekend, the blunder dropped Piastri to second behind Verstappen, while Norris could only manage fourth, allowing Verstappen to leapfrog Piastri and slash the gap heading to Yas Marina.
Norris still leads on 408 points, with Verstappen on 396 and Piastri on 392. It is the 32nd time the championship has gone down to the final race, and only nine times has the leader entering the last round failed to convert.
The most recent was in 2010, when Sebastian Vettel overturned a 15-point deficit to Fernando Alonso to claim the first of his four titles. The only other multi-driver fight this century also ended in an upset, with Kimi Raikkonen coming from seven points back from Lewis Hamilton to win the 2007 championship.
Countback could also play a role; all three contenders sit on seven wins this season, with Norris ahead on second-place finishes if any tie occurs.
With that in mind, here is how each driver can seal the 2025 F1 drivers’ championship at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
How Lando Norris can win the F1 title
Norris enters the finale as the favourite and fully controls his destiny, with any podium finish securing his maiden world championship — and making him Britain’s 11th drivers’ champion — regardless of what Verstappen or Piastri do.
If he repeats his Qatar result — fourth — Verstappen must not win. Fifth place also requires Verstappen to finish no higher than second.
Finishing sixth or seventh opens the door further, with both Verstappen and Piastri needing to be second or lower. An eighth-place finish demands Verstappen be third or lower and Piastri second or lower.
If Norris ends up ninth, Verstappen cannot finish better than fourth and Piastri must be second or worse. Tenth place requires Verstappen to be fourth or lower and Piastri third or lower.
Should Norris fail to score or finish 11th or worse, the same conditions apply: Verstappen must be no higher than fourth, and Piastri must be third or worse for the Briton to clinch the title.
How Max Verstappen can win the F1 title
Verstappen’s Qatar win kept his extraordinary comeback alive — a run that at one point required overturning a 104-point deficit. His clearest route is simple: win in Abu Dhabi and hope Norris finishes fourth or lower.
Second place would require Norris to slump to eighth or worse, while Piastri must finish third or lower.
If Verstappen finishes third, he needs Norris ninth or worse and Piastri second or lower to take a record-equalling fifth consecutive championship, joining Michael Schumacher as the only drivers to win that many titles in a row.
He would also join Schumacher, Lewis Hamilton and Juan Manuel Fangio as the only drivers to win five world championships — an extraordinary achievement given how far back he has come from.
How Oscar Piastri can win the F1 title
Piastri must finish first or second to stay in the fight. If he wins, Norris needs to finish sixth or worse; Verstappen would be eliminated regardless of his result.
Should the Australian finish second, he would require Norris to drop to tenth or worse and Verstappen to miss the podium entirely.
Piastri admitted after Qatar that he would “need a lot of things to go in my direction,” but his improved pace has at least kept him in the hunt to break Australia’s long drought without a world champion — aiming to become the first Aussie to win the title since Alan Jones in 1980.
With so many scenarios still in play, it’s shaping up as one of the most anticipated season finales in F1 history.
The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix weekend begins on Friday, with the race taking place at 12am AEDT on Monday.
Discussion about this post