Shane van Gisbergen’s return to the NASCAR Cup Series this weekend is a massive turning point in the three-time Supercars champion’s career.Yet it’s also a significant gamble after his masterful win at Chicago – the first in NASCAR Cup Series victory on debut for 60 years – if he’s yet to sign a 2024 deal.

In this week’s Pirtek Poll, we’re asking – is SVG’s NASCAR follow up the biggest risk of his career?

Van Gisbergen rocked NASCAR with his near-perfect Chicago cameo, with a win coming in challenging conditions that saw his driving prowess seal the victory.

The Kiwi was the demonstrable difference in the #91 Trackhouse entry winning NASCAR’s first street race, after topping opening practice and then qualifying third.

Reaction to SVG’s win included 2021 Cup Series winner Kyle Larson asking: “I’m curious if he thinks we all suck or if we could actually, like, compete, if we weren’t really that bad.”

Van Gisbergen became a household name for NASCAR fans across North America and in motorsport circles around the globe, even if it seems most pundits could not pronounce his name correctly.

The praise for his win came from all corners and every cohort in a seemingly universal admiration for the 34-year-old Kiwi’s accomplishment. Instantly marketable, his already strong stocks as a driver instantly skyrocketed as he became NASCAR’s hottest property – then the long-term negotiations began.

While walking tall from his NASCAR win, van Gisbergen has since confirmed that he’s actively seeking a 2024 Cup Series drive, looking to end his contract with Triple Eight Race Engineering a year early.

That comes with risk itself. He’s clearly shown that he does not see Supercars as part of his plans from next season, and his responses have changed over the course of the eight rounds of the 2023 Supercars Championship he’s contested so far.

In April, van Gisbergen said that Supercars was, “Worse than ever for all the background stuff”.

That came after the Red Bull Ampol driver became embroiled in a controversial press conference at the season-opener in Newcastle where he – and multiple drivers, including Grove Racing’s David Reynolds – told media that public criticism had ‘bitten him in the arse’ as he adopted a silent approach in response to commentary on the newly introduced Gen3 regulations.

Van Gisbergen maintained a stoic position and was careful to limit any criticism of Supercars or the Gen3 program, of which Triple Eight Race Engineering’s Technical Director, Jeromy Moore, played a key role.

Yet his return from Chicago saw van Gisbergen struggle in Darwin, where his #97 suffered mysterious handling woes that continued at the following Townsville round before a chassis swap – and victory in Race 19 – came at last weekend’s Sydney event.

A penalty during Saturday night’s Race 18, however, as well as the broadcasting of Cam Waters’ profanity-rich radio outburst that was highly critical of the series overall, saw van Gisbergen acknowledge a level of dissatisfaction with the series.

After Sunday’s qualifying – where he scored pole position – the three-time champion mentioned that he agreed with Waters’ comments.

Was his willingness to publicly condone criticism of Supercars an indication that a 2024 NASCAR deal has already been done? Does it make it harder for him to come back if he somehow does not land a drive overseas?

More so, if a NASCAR deal hasn’t been inked, does he risk lowering his stocks – and his negotiating power – if he does not score a repeat win, or at least a strong showing at Indianapolis?

Dale Earnhardt Junior thinks that the New Zealander either has – or is close – to securing a drive in North America next season and that the pressure on van Gisbergen is greater than it was for his Chicago debut.

“He needs to go to Indy, lead laps and challenge for the win,” Earnhardt Junior said on The Dale Jr. Download.

Earnhardt Junior’s rationale is that van Gisbergen’s inexperience on ovals will cost a team across a Cup Series season, so he must obliterate the opposition on road courses in order for the team to reach the playoffs and justify the Kiwi’s expense.

Saying that, van Gisbergen has not publicly committed to a full-time 2024 NASCAR drive – only that he cannot do NASCAR and Supercars and is seeking a drive with the former, even in a part-time capacity.

What’s more, he’s since announced that he will make his oval NASCAR debut in the Truck Series on Friday, August 11, ahead of his Cup Series return the same weekend.

That shows commitment and willingness, and should he shine there or even make a modest mark, the sky’s the limit for van Gisbergen.

He clearly, too, has absolute faith in his driving ability – his results speak for themselves – so is willing to risk what he’s created so far to take that next step into NASCAR.

Yet even an average performance, as Earnhardt has suggested, may damage his chances – even if Supercars fans are unanimously cheering him on and there’s no reason to suggest he won’t be at the head of the field in Indianapolis.

The pressure on van Gisbergen may have taken any heat off Supercars Championship leader Brodie Kostecki, who’ll make his NASCAR Cup Series debut in the same Indy race – but again, SVG’s Chicago success has elevated expectations of what he may achieve, too.

The pair are, appropriately, the most recent winners in Supercars as they head Stateside.

Yet for van Gisbergen, the chance to cement his reputation comes with significant risk – worst case, he stays in Supercars, but that comes after criticism of the competition and what appears to be genuine dissatisfaction with the championship. Simply put, he appears not to be enjoying it and does not want to remain there.

If a NASCAR deal is done, then he is free as a bird in this weekend’s race too. Yet if he’s close but not locked in, it could well be the second audition that his future hinges on.

Van Gisbergen is not averse to risk, on or off the track. Fans will recall his ‘retirement’ from Stone Brothers as a 23-year-old rising star in November 2012 – something he’s since suggested he should’ve handled differently – only to return to Supercars the following season with Tekno Autosports.

While that paid off in the long run, does that make his return to NASCAR this weekend the biggest gamble of van Gisbergen’s career? Tell us your thoughts below.