Ott Tanak leads a World Rally Championship event at the completion of an opening superspecial stage for the second time this year – but is not convinced that he’ll stay in front.

The M-Sport Ford Puma driver beat Toyota’s eight-time world champion Sebastien Ogier through the 4.84-kilometre test on the outskirts of Kenya’s capital Nairobi on Thursday afternoon. He’s now bracing himself for the Safari Rally getting under way for real on Friday morning.

Speaking at the finish of the Kasarani superspecial, where he beat 2021 Safari winner Ogier by 0.1s, Tanak, who led Rally Mexico in March after the opening action, told the WRC All Live: “Let’s see after Saturday. I would say this day will tell us a lot.”

As well as being one of rallying’s most iconic events, the Safari is also arguably the toughest with rocks, ruts and river crossings – plus the prospect of burning sun, flash storms and plenty of mud – all in store over the next three days.

A trio of repeated stages on the northerly and southerly shores of Lake Naivasha, 100 kilometres north of Nairobi, form a Friday leg that’s almost unchanged compared to 2022.

Saturday’s route takes crews north of Naivasha towards Lake Elmenteita and includes double runs through the Sleeping Warrior stage, now the rally’s longest at 31.04km after Friday’s Kedong test was trimmed in length.

Sunday’s itinerary then begins with the new Malewa stage, one of three repeated tests on the final leg of the event, which will be decided by the 10.53km Hell’s Gate Wolf Power Stage, the 19th of a rally that features 356.98 timed kilometres.

While Tanak and Ogier have made the early running in Kenya, runaway world championship leader and defending WRC champion Kalle Rovanpera is firmly in the fight in third position.

The Toyota-driving Finn, who was fastest in Wednesday shakedown, was 2.4s down on Tanak but 0.3s ahead of Hyundai’s Thierry Neuville, second in the standings after winning in Sardinia earlier this month.

Rovanpera almost rolled on the same stage 12 months ago so was somewhat relieved to have got through the fan-friendly test unscathed. Elfyn Evans, meanwhile, completes the top five for Toyota with Esapekka Lappi and Takamoto Katsuta next up.

Lappi is making his Safari debut and got his bid for a fourth straight 2023 WRC podium off to a tough start when a bust propshaft halted his factory Hyundai during shakedown. Katsuta, a podium finisher two years running in Kenya, rolled in shakedown and inflicted considerable damage to his Yaris in the process.

Dani Sordo stopped the SS1 clocks with the seventh quickest time but a 10s penalty for a jumped start puts him back to 16th at the overnight halt.

The Spaniard’s demotion leaves Safari rookie Pierre-Louis Loubet in ninth with Oliver Solberg, the fastest Rally2 contender, in 10th. Kajetan Kajetanowicz heads Gregoire Munster in a depleted WRC2 entry by 0.8s.

Action resumes with the 19.17km Loldia stage from 0800 local time on Friday. The event’s 70th anniversary also marks the halfway point of the 2023 season.