The New Zealander scored points on his return in the United States with a storming drive to ninth.
He then went wheel-to-wheel with Sergio Perez in Mexico City in a tense battle between the drivers thought to be direct rivals for the second Red Bull Racing seat next season.
But as Perez continues to struggle and Lawson’s stock rises, there have been suggestions the Kiwi could be promoted alongside Max Verstappen as soon as the Las Vegas Grand Prix.
The logic is twofold.
On one hand, it would potentially bolster Red Bull Racing’s chances in the constructors’ championship while also preparing Lawson ahead of joining the squad permanently next season.
Red Bull Racing now sits third in the constructors’ championship, a result largely driven by Perez’s inability to score strong, consistent points for much of the season.
It trails Ferrari by 29 points and languishes 63 back from title leader McLaren.
After the Miami Grand Prix, Round 6 of the season, it had a 114-point advantage over McLaren, meaning it has endured a 177-point swing in just over 14 events (up to the Sao Paulo Sprint).
However, while promoting Lawson is a comparatively low-risk move given Perez’s plight, it also offers the prospect of low returns.
Just three races remain beyond tomorrow’s Sao Paulo Grand Prix, and it is reasonable to suggest Red Bull Racing will lose further ground in the constructors’ championship.
It leaves little time to claw back Ferrari and McLaren making the potential gain for Red Bull Racing low.
Conversely, the risk to RB in uprooting Lawson (or Yuki Tsunoda, for that matter) is more significant.
The Italian squad sits seventh in the constructors’ championship just 10 point down on Haas; a catchable margin, but one that requires RB to maximise its opportunities.
To do that, it needs the strongest driver pairing it can muster. With all due respect to Isack Hadjar, Lawson and Tsunoda have the runs on the board.
Maintaining that pairing is RB’s best chance of overhauling Haas and taking sixth in the constructors’ championship title, which is worth north of AUD $15 million.
For an operation that had its parent company last year tip in AUD $140 million, and has made its intention to reduce that involvement going forward, the added prize money bonus next year would be well received.
Financials aside, on a personnel front there also seems little sense in promoting Lawson now.
Strong speculation has linked Franco Colapinto to Red Bull for next season – discussions between Christian Horner and Williams boss James Vowles are known to have taken place.
To join Red Bull Racing, the Argentinian first needs to be released by Williams, a point which is not expected to come cheap.
It’s almost unimaginable that Horner would be prepared to make that financial commitment only to place him at RB.
Having to then move a driver from Red Bull Racing back to RB is unlikely to be well received, and not serve the organisation’s longer-term best interests as it looks for a future both beyond Perez and Verstappen.
Hence, in the interim, there seems little to be gained by shuffling the cards; inaction now avoids potential awkwardness at the end of the season.
It also has next to no negative performance impact on either team, indeed one can strongly argue the positives for RB make leaving Lawson where he is the smartest play.
There is a very real fight for sixth at RB. For now, that is where Lawson can add the greatest value.
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