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A challenger for podiums at the start of last season, Aston Martin fell off the pace as the 2023 development race picked up.
Over the off-season it was hoped the lessons of that tough campaign would translate into a stronger challenge this year, only it hasn’t been the case.
There have been no podiums this year; Fernando Alonso’s fifth in Saudi Arabia remains the squad’s best performance so far.
It ended last year’s championship fifth and currently holds that position again with some margin; 73 points versus RB’s 34, largely held up by Alonso’s performances.
The Spaniard has contributed 49 points across 12 races as Lance Stroll has been wholly underwhelming.
The Canadian’s continued presence at the wheel of Aston Martin is widely seen as a liability for the team – a hurdle to the success the team is building towards.
His ambivalence after torpedoing Daniel Ricciardo out of the Chinese Grand Prix, a clash that also impacted Oscar Piastri, was inexcusable for a driver at Formula 1 level.
More recently, his performances have improved, but for long periods they were well below Alonso’s.
That’s important as it leaves a points-paying position available for rivals, making that battle to retain fifth closer than it arguably needs to be.
Still, it seems almost inconceivable that it will lose the spot in the constructors’ championship.
With a 39-point advantage over RB, the Italian squad would have to significantly lift its scoring rate in the second half of the year to challenge.
Of course, that’s possible, but requires both Yuki Tsunoda and Daniel Ricciardo to be routinely scoring, and on occasion snagging a big result, while Aston Martin flounders.
That’s highly unlikely and so while Aston Martin may slip further back towards RB and Haas behind, it’ll likely hang on to fifth come Abu Dhabi.
As far as moving forward goes, that horse has bolted. Mercedes in fourth is 193 points up the road and, on recent form, likely to extend that handsomely in the backend of the season.
Given that context, Aston Martin could therefore be forgiven for looking at the remainder of 2024 as a transitional period and instead focus on 2025.
It would be a rational decision given there is nothing to gain and, comparatively, little of substance to lose in the F1 midfield.
Aston Martin has strong resources now too, so deploying those with a view to the longer term makes sense for the Silverstone squad.
And given the way the team has been trending off track, with significant investment in personnel and facilities, one gets the impression it’s a matter of time and, perhaps more importantly, stability.
Aston Martin has the ingredients for strong results, far better than it is currently developing, but it is a team that needs to believe it can deliver and learn how to become a winning team.
That sounds trivial, but McLaren has shown those growing pains are very real and can be the difference between winning or not.
It’s not something that is likely to happen this year, it’s already too far behind the eight ball, but perhaps there are lessons left in the back half of the year that can be applied to help it steal a march come 2025.
