McLaren emerged as the team to beat during the three days of pre-season testing in Bahrain late last month.
That reaffirmed the belief the Papaya squad is the favourite for the championship this year.
However, team principal Stella is wary of the closing challenge posed by the field.
F1 is in the final year of its current regulation set, and the field has converged significantly.
While there were clearly four top teams last year, Stella suggested the leading group could easily now include six teams.
“In the past, we used to talk about the top three,” Stella said.
“Thankfully, McLaren has kind of added; now we have the top four.
“But perhaps this year, we might have to adapt our language again, which will be great for Formula 1, and then maybe the top five or top six.”
McLaren, Mercedes, Red Bull, and Ferrari all performed largely inline with expectations during testing and are tipped to feature at the front of the field.
While the consensus is McLaren looks the best, the order of the next three is less clear.
Also impressing during the three days in Bahrain were Williams and Alpine.
The latter had a torrid start to 2024 with an overweight car that translated into poor early-season performance.
By year-end, the squad had risen to sixth, with its current car an evolution of the A524 it ran last year – so much so that it retains the same survival cell.
Williams also impressed with its single-lap pace particularly promising.
However, the team was quick to play down its performances as ‘just testing’ given the uncertainty surrounding each team’s fuel loads, engine map, and run program – not to mention unseasonal weather in Bahrain.
“What you are seeing, which is a great thing, is the difference in fuel maps and power modes is masking the difference between the teams,” reasoned Williams’ boss James Vowles.
“That’s a good thing. That means the sport’s getting closer and closer together.
“But it’s not a cold, wet Bahrain that we’re going to be able to determine the order; I think realistically, it’s only when we get to Melbourne that we’ll see it.
“My view on that is the top four will be the top for. I think there’s a large gap between them and the midfield, and then the midfield… not sure.
“It’s going to be a scrap and I think it will depend race by race.”
Stella holds a different view and suggests the field has condensed.
“I’ve seen that, in terms of one lap pace, in addition to the top four… certainly Williams very competitive,” he said.
“I’m sure everyone will have seen the same data that I look at.
“And it’s interesting that, for instance, Williams was very strong in the second sector, which is not only a sector of braking, acceleration, it’s also a sector with a couple of medium speed corners.
“I think this should say that Williams might have improved in that area.”
That trend is one Stella suggests will see the pack close further still. That will increase pressure up and down pit lane come qualifying.
With potentially six teams and 12 drivers in the mix on any given weekend, a small mistake could be heavily punished and see front-runners eliminated as early as Qualifying 1.
“Already last year, going through qualifying sessions, it was quite tight,” Stella admitted.
“Those sessions in which you enter [Q1] and you think we’re going to go through with one set of tyres, just the first run will be enough; often we needed to go out again and it was still quite close from a lap times point of view.
“What I’ve taken from these two days is that, if anything, there is going to be even more of this as we start this 2025 season.”
