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It’s a margin far closer than many had predicted and suggests, at least over a single lap, Ferrari is a close match for Red Bull Racing.
That is played out in the data, which highlights the key role Oscar Piastri played in Verstappen’s pole lap.
As Piastri completed his own final effort in Qualifying 3, Verstappen was beginning his. Having had to let the McLaren through, the Dutchman was positioned in behind the McLaren on the run down the front straight, affording him a tow.
The slipstream effect proved critical as it saw the Red Bull Racing driver’s speed rise to close to its maximum on approach to Turn 1.
Data overlays of the lap (see below) show Verstappen’s speed had largely plateaued as he entered the braking zone for the first corner, while Leclerc was still accelerating.
It’s the most significant difference in the data between the two driver’s fastest laps.
However, it’s not the only difference.
While Verstappen and Leclerc were evenly matched through the first corner and the complex that followed, not to mention the run up the hill to Turn 4, Verstappen reached a marginally higher top speed but also applied the brakes earlier.
His minimum speed through the right-hander was lower, too.
Through the sweeping section that followed and through the two tight corners at Turn 8 and Turn 10, again, they were evenly matched.
It’s subtle, but again, Verstappen braked earlier into Turn 10, though his minimum speed was nearly identical to that of his Ferrari rival.
Another key difference exists at the end of the back straight, where the Red Bull is again on the brakes earlier and slows more for the quick left-hander.
For Leclerc, the data suggests a feathering of the throttle on exit, as what should be a smooth upward curve is slightly jagged as his speed approaches around 180km/h.
Again, at Turn 13, Leclerc maintained a higher minimum speed, however, his speed down the back straight and through the final corner was nearly identical to that of Verstappen.
Overlaid against one another, the difference is clear; the run into the first corner was the key for Verstappen, and where the three-time world champion had the greatest advantage over Leclerc.
“The track had a lot of grip, but with the wind, you know, the last two days, it’s been quite tricky to get the whole lap together,” Verstappen said of his qualifying performance.
“It was the same in qualifying. Q1, Q2, of course, you naturally go a bit faster with the track ramping up, but then to really get everything out of it in Q3 was a little more difficult.
“But, of course, very happy to be on pole. To be honest, it was a little bit unexpected. But luckily in qualifying, I think the car came to us and I felt a bit happier with the whole car.
“I had to let him by because there was not enough space,” he added of the two from Piastri.
“So then, yeah, I followed him to Turn 1 a little bit, which, yeah, definitely gave me a little bit of lap time, but not as much as what the gap was.”
Leclerc, by contrast, was disappointed to have finished second fastest.
“I’m a bit disappointed, but yeah, we did a good qualifying. I mean, it’s been a tricky weekend until now,” he explained.
“We were trying quite a few things in FP1, FP2, FP3, and then I found the sweet spot in qualifying.
“Q1 was a bit tricky. Unfortunately, we put two new sets of softs, which compromised a little bit the Q3.
“But all in all, it’s quite a good qualifying, a good start of the year.
“We are in a better place compared to a year ago, so that is good. Now we have to see the race pace tomorrow.”
Ferrari’s long-run pace remains one of the great unanswered questions.
A weakness for the Maranello operation last year, the development of the SF-24 focused on producing a more consistent car for the drivers, and one that doesn’t eat its tyres as badly over a race stint.
However, Red Bull Racing does not look to have eased up. Race pace was a strength in 2023; the early indications are that it remains so this year.
Whether that proves the case remains to be seen, with the 57-lap Bahrain Grand Prix beginning at 18:00 local time tonight (02:00 AEDT).
