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Testing does not offer an especially accurate representation of the form for the coming season, it is only a glimpse, but it’s still the first insight we’ve got and reveals some broad truths.
It is difficult to hide a car that handles like a shopping trolley. If it’s unreliable, it becomes painfully obvious. There are telltale signs, and by reading those, listening to the teams, and stitching it all together, we can get a reasonable impression of where every team is.
And so, with that in mind, here’s how they stack up.
Red Bull Racing
The class of the field last year, the Milton Keynes squad had such an advantage that it was able to swap its focus to the 2024 car early. That head start has been used to good effect, and the RB20 looks by some distance the best car in the field.
On track, it appears to have a sharp front end. It turns in like nothing else, and while the rear does dance a little, that should suit Max Verstappen’s driving style. Sergio Perez may struggle a little more.
One observer put it best: “Red Bull could stop developing now and still win next year’s championship.” That’s a damming statement.
Prediction: World champions
Ferrari
There are positive noises coming out of Maranello. A year on from Fred Vasseur’s arrival and the team looks more settled. So too does the car, which last year was unpredictable and inconsistent.
Addressing those issues was paramount in the development of this year’s car, and if we take Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz at face value, it has achieved that aim.
While the SF-24 looks good, it doesn’t look as good as the RB20. On traction out of the low-speed corners in particular the rear end tended to protest, raising questions about tyre degradation.
But, the underlying pace displayed during the test looks genuine, and Ferrari appears to be the nearest challenger to Red Bull Racing.
Prediction: Race winners
Mercedes
A significantly different car for Mercedes brings with it renewed hope. And that seems well placed based on testing as, while not as good as the Red Bull or Ferrari, it remains towards the pointy end – for such a significant redesign, that’s a hugely promising starting point.
One notable point with the W15, however, was that it was running much lower than its rivals, evidenced by the shower of sparks it generated. It was notably higher than any of its rivals, suggesting Mercedes is running its cars much lower. There was also evidence of porpoising.
So there’s work to do at Mercedes, but the early signs are promising.
Prediction: Podium contenders
McLaren
There was a subtle change to the language from the team heading into testing and then during the three-day last week. Where it was optimistic heading in, that was tempered to the car being a step forward and a good foundation for development.
McLaren recovered strongly in 2023, leading to high expectations for the coming year, both internally and externally.
But, like the Mercedes W15, the McLaren MCL38 needs work. There appeared to be mid-corner understeer during the first two days, a complaint of the 2023 car.
McLaren’s rebuild it over. It has its new facilities and staff so it would not be surprising to see the team at the very pointy end by Abu Dhabi. In Bahrain, it seems half a step off that.
Prediction: Podium contenders
Aston Martin
There were no great strides from Aston Martin this year like there were last, but conversely there was nothing to give reason for concern either.
The car is an evolution of the AMR23, which was a very handy package but suffered from its in-season development programme. It’s a point the team has acknowledged and is hopeful of addressing this year.
It will be important if the team is going to move forward as it currently looks nip and tuck with the Mercedes and McLaren, that whole group a little way from challenging for race wins on merit.
Prediction: Podium contenders
Image: Batchelor / XPB Images
RB
The little team from Faenza proved the surprise package of testing with a car that looked extremely impressive on the opening day. The troubling thing is understanding whether that was because the car was just well sorted out of the box, or simply better than many of its rivals in those early runs.
As testing wore on, the car looked to come back to the pack, which suggests it was in a better window out of the box and the field caught up as they refined their own cars. But that in itself is promising as it suggests the RB has a wide operating window and is not as sensitive to external factors.
Daniel Ricciardo and the team are playing down their chances and claim to be a midfield team. And in truth, that’s probably where it’ll be, but don’t be surprised if it does, on occasion, rise above that.
Prediction: Points scorers
Williams
Last year, Williams had a car that worked well in a very narrow band. On the right track, the FW45 was lightning fast and Alex Albon used it effectively. However, there simply aren’t enough tracks like Canada, Monza, and so on. And so the team has developed a package it hopes is less ‘peaky’, especially when the downforce is wound on – a significant weakness of last year’s car.
Those specifics won’t be known for a few races but early indications are promising. There are no obvious issues with the car nor great complaints. While it won’t be challenging for race wins, it doesn’t look like it’ll be scrapping away to get out of Q1 on too many occasions either.
Prediction: Midfield challengers
Alpine
It was curious to read the language in Alpine’s media release ahead of the Bahrain Grand Prix. Team boss Bruno Famin branded testing as productive but added that “we know it was not going to be an easy start to the season.” Given these releases are usually dominated by teams talking up their chances, it’s a glum comment that seems to sum up the mood in the team.
After its management shakeup midway through last year, the team should have been moving forward. Instead, there’s a suggestion the car is overweight and has lost ground. Indeed, the real question seems to be how far has it fallen? Some would suggest listing it eighth is generous.
Prediction: Midfield challengers
Haas
Miracles were never expected from the American-registered operation, though it was hoped it would make a step forward given it has radically changed its car.
The management changes over the off-season happened too late to have any real impact on the design, but in time will be interesting to see the impact of.
In terms of the car, there does appear to have been progress. On track it looks to do everything well, but doesn’t appear to have the raw pace of its rivals.
The noises out of the team are broadly positive. They’re not expecting to set the world alight and are instead looking for longer-term progress and ironing out the issues that blighted last year’s car, namely tyre degradation. It’s too early to get a read on that specific issue, but the basic car looks settled and compliant. It’s a promising foundation.
Prediction: Midfield challengers
Sauber
There are two schools of thought when it comes to Sauber. On track, the car looks unruly, with oversteer both mid-corner and on exit.
Common wisdom goes a loose race car is a fast race car, so there’s an argument to be made for that. However, the other argument is if you’re going sideways you’re going slowly, and the Sauber spent far more time sideways than its rivals. And if we extrapolate that out to look at wheelspin and the result on tyre wear, it suggests a nervous car is a slow car.
Prediction: A long year ahead
