With the RB19, Red Bull produced the most successful car in F1 history as it won 21 of 22 grands prix, with Horner conceding that even three-time champion Max Verstappen was “emotional” over the radio after his final lap in the car at the end of the season-concluding Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
Horner is adamant there will be no repeat of this year next season due to what he sees as “diminishing returns” in terms of development under the current ground-effect aerodynamic regulations.
The 50-year-old is also anticipating several of his team’s rivals to take to the grid for the opening race of next season in Bahrain at the start of March to bear a striking resemblance to the RB19.
“It’s been a very special period for the team and, hopefully, we can carry that momentum into next year,” said Horner, speaking to select media, including Speedcafe.
“But I’m fully expecting, with stable regulations, there will be diminishing returns for us because I think we got to the top of the curve quicker than others.
“The field is going to converge, and for us, it’s difficult to know who that will be. Will it be McLaren? Will it be Ferrari? Will it be Mercedes? It keeps moving around behind us.
“But that’s what we’re fully expecting as we go into next year.”
Due to Red Bull’s dominance, it is known the team was able to start development on next year’s car earlier than most, and it has a driver in Verstappen who is at the top of his game.
As to why Red Bull would be unable to continue with such form into 2024, Horner said: “There’s always a reset as you go into the following year.
“I’m convinced you’ll see a lot more cars that perhaps look like an RB19 (and its) philosophy going into next year. It’s inevitable they would do.
“If you stand still in this business, you tend to go backward, and I think we got up that curve quicker than others but, as I say, we’re into a law of diminishing returns.”
Horner stated he could already see that happening, not helped by the two-fold hit in terms of wind tunnel and CFD allowance, primarily after winning the constructors’ championship, and the sliding scale of time permitted throughout the grid.
Additionally, Red Bull was also punished for breaking the budget cap in 2021, which resulted in further rationing of wind tunnel and CFD usage that ran for 12 months and ended in October.
“Of course, with the lack of wind tunnel time that we’ve had, even though we transitioned early, we still had less time, in practice, than a great many of our opponents,” said Horner.
“So we’ve had to be very frugal and selective of where we apply that time for RB20., that will try to build on the strengths of 19.”
Horner has confirmed the RB20 will be “evolution, not revolution”.
“All areas have been revisited in the car, and we can’t afford to have any complacency, so the car is very much an evolution of a theme,” said Horner. “We’re not reinventing the wheel.
“That has been very much the route of the engineering path over the last 12 months.”
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