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Max Verstappen demolished the field last season, and while Sergio Perez ended the year second in the drivers’ championship, it was hardly a convincing performance.
Perez is out of contract at the end of the year, and such was the gulf to Verstappen in 2023 that there was talk of the Mexican being out of the drive this year.
That was rebuffed by team boss Christian Horner, and with fair logic, as there wasn’t anyone available who could clearly step into the car and do a better job.
Add to that the cost of terminating Perez’s contract, making a change for this year was not an attractive proposition.
However, the situation is different for 2025.
Of the current crop of drivers, of which there are 20, only five have a deal in place beyond the end of this year.
Max Verstappen has a long-term agreement with Red Bull Racing that will keep him in Milton Keynes until 2028.
Both Mercedes drivers, Lewis Hamilton and George Russell, are locked away until the regulations change for 2026.
McLaren has Oscar Piastri locked in until the end of 2026 and Lando Norris in line with the Merc duo.
Of course, contracts in F1 are entirely negotiable and just because you have ink on paper doesn’t mean things can’t change.
And that’s a seemingly important fact as Norris emerges as one of the front runners to replace Perez.
Red Bull Racing romped to the constructors’ championship last year off the back of Verstappen’s dominance, but that won’t always be the case.
The team needs two drivers firing, with the ‘second’ driver able to pick up the pieces should something happen to its Dutch superstar.
In 2023, Perez couldn’t do that consistently and, as a result, identified a weakness in Red Bull Racing’s armoury – one that could cost the team a title in a more competitive season.
And so it is crucial for whoever shares the garage with Verstappen to be at his level, or very close to it, week in and week out.
In his three seasons with Red Bull Racing, Perez has shown glimpses of being able to deliver at that level but has never been capable of doing it consistently.
At the start of 2023, he looked as though he might challenge for the title, but that was effectively extinguished at the Miami Grand Prix, quickly followed by a dismal Monaco.
So what are the alternatives?
Horner and Red Bull Racing’s motorsport advisor, Helmut Marko, realistically have three options: continue with Perez, promote from within, or go to the market.
Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda are both within the Red Bull Racing family already at AlphaTauri RB, with the former having made no secret of his desire to return to the senior team.
Tsunoda is a curious one.
He has incredible pace but a fiery temperament in the car that can, and has, cost him and his team important results.
In Mexico last year, his antics arguably cost AlphaTauri RB seventh in the constructors’ championship.
Battling with Piastri, he could have secured a comfortable eighth place in a season where points were gold dust, but instead ended the race 12th.
Worse, Alex Albon ended the day in ninth, meaning two points for Williams in the title race.
Applying that hypothetical to the championship standings, both Williams and AlphaTauri RB would have ended the year on 27 points – though Williams would have still finished ahead on countback.
But it highlights a weakness for Tsunoda.
In a lower midfield team, he was thinking about only the battle with Piastri and not the broader picture and its impact.
Apply that mentality to a second driver at a front-running team, whose priority is to support the lead driver and bank points – performing the team role above individual glory – and Tsunoda doesn’t seem a good fit.
Also, with three years of F1 experience, is he a step improvement over Ricciardo? Evidence suggests not.
So, of the internal options, Ricciardo and Tsunoda, the latter is arguably the weaker of the two as his Australian counterpart has demonstrated his abilities repeatedly.
He’s driven in support when needed, he’s led on occasion, too. He understands the needs of the team, the sport, and himself and can balance those appropriately.
The one big question is his speed and whether there are any lasting effects of his time at McLaren, though he’s done much to vanquish those.
Should he continue this year as he did in the latter part of 2023, Ricciardo will be a very strong contender for the Perez drive.
But, he probably isn’t the primary target.
Ricciardo will turn 35 midway through the coming season which suggests he has perhaps two-to-four years left in F1. He’s realistically a comparatively short-term option.
Contrast that with Norris, who is only 24, and is regarded as one of the best drivers on the grid despite not having won a race thus far.
He is under contract with McLaren, but that isn’t necessarily a deal breaker for Red Bull Racing, which has pursued the Englishman on multiple occasions.
A deal with Norris would bring a known, top-quality driver to the team and one with a long future ahead of him.
The question is whether he’d be happy to race alongside Verstappen and what figure (if any) McLaren would let him go for.
At McLaren, the challenge when it comes to releasing Norris would be who to replace him with.
There are the driver market is not especially deep at the moment and it is, therefore, not in the team’s interest to let him go easily – that is why Zak Brown is keen to lock Norris down with a new contract.
A new McLaren deal achieves two things: it gives the team longer-term security while raising the price of any buyout clause – F1 is a business, let us not forget.
Could a Norris deal at Red Bull Racing open the door for Pato O’Ward to make the switch from IndyCar? It’s one possibility and would add credibility to the McLaren academy but is not without its risk.
Back to the Red Bull Racing scenario, of the drivers mentioned here, Norris would be the best fit for Red Bull Racing long term, but it has hurdles to clear.
Next best appears to be Ricciardo, who is a safe bet but likely comes with a short future.
Third best would be to retain Perez on a short-term deal and work to ink a deal with a longer-term prospect for 2026 and beyond (Liam Lawson, perhaps?).
Perez could improve his chances, however, with a strong 2024.
That leaves Tsunoda on the sidelines, though there have been suggestions the Japanese driver could make his way over to Aston Martin for 2026 given his links with Honda – Fernando Alonso can’t race forever…. Can he?
