With Max Verstappen the only confirmed Red Bull driver for 2026, Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda are potentially fighting for one vacant Racing Bulls seat.
Isack Hadjar is expected to step up to Red Bull and rookie Arvid Lindblad is another contender for his Racing Bulls debut — leaving Lawson and Tsunoda waiting on a shifting deadline.
Lawson, who has pieced together a strong first full season despite being demoted by the senior team after just two rounds — scoring six points finishes including a standout fifth in Azerbaijan — said he has focused on proving he belongs rather than dwelling on the uncertainty.
He believes surviving the opening campaign is the biggest hurdle for any newcomer.
“Your first year in F1 is the most important,” he said.
“It is really the year where you improve, whether you stay in the sport, and I think more guys probably lose their drive after one or two seasons of Formula 1 rather than multiple seasons.
“Once you secure a seat for a few years, you are known to be a valuable driver.”
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With Red Bull now pushing its driver call until at least Abu Dhabi, he admits he still has no sense of when the decision will be made.
“Honestly, I have absolutely no idea. I would expect it to be towards the end, if not the end of the season,” Lawson said.
“Both teams are in a very important constructors’ [title] race. And I think to give the best opportunity possible for both teams, that’s the reasoning of this [delay], I would say.
“But for that, I would say they’re going to push it as late as they can. But obviously, I don’t know.”
While Lawson has strengthened his case with consistent results, Tsunoda’s hopes took a hit after another punishing weekend in Las Vegas.
A tyre-pressure error in qualifying forced him to start from the pit lane, and an early pit stop was immediately undone by a Virtual Safety Car that allowed rivals to gain time.
He finished 14th on the road before being classified 12th following the McLaren disqualifications.
“The thing is, the safety car came in right after I pitted, so it’s not ideal,” he said.
“It feels like everything so far is going against me, the luck and everything.
“I don’t like the word luck, but this weekend feels like it’s really bad luck.”
Tsunoda said the pace had been there before qualifying unravelled and felt he could have been closer to points without the early caution. He conceded the run of setbacks is wearing on him.
“It’s a shame and frustrating that I wasn’t able to use my pace until qualifying. Just throwing it away,” he added.
Despite the bleak result, Tsunoda pointed to his practice speed — often matching or beating Verstappen — and hopes Red Bull took notice.
“Multiple times, FP1, FP2, FP3, on multiple laps, I was ahead of Max in performance runs, and I think that’s something that I didn’t have for a long time,” he said.
“Obviously, one of his strengths is that he will bring the car or his level to another level in Qualifying, which is his strength, but also, I had confidence into Qualifying.
“I guess people noticed it, but at the same time, what I want is the result, and obviously the team [does] as well.
“But we can’t keep on like this in terms of this mistake and everything, so we tidy it up for Qatar.”
Red Bull has previously made clear that delaying its 2026 line-ups is a deliberate move, with senior figures echoing Lawson’s view that they want to avoid distractions while fighting for key positions in the constructors’ standings.
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