The internal war came to a head on Wednesday night when Red Bull announced sweeping management changes.
It all comes at a time when rumours persist that Verstappen has his eyes on a move to Mercedes.
The conclusion some pundits have drawn in the wake of Horner’s sacking is that Verstappen gave Red Bull an ultimatum — either Verstappen goes or Horner goes.
Whether that is true or not remains to be seen, but the coinciding departure of two Red Bull communications staffers – chief marketing officer Oliver Hughes and group director of communications Paul Smith – would suggest otherwise and is part of a greater problem.
In any case, Red Bull is a ship that’s got a few holes in it after several big personnel blows, and that alone could be the catalyst for Verstappen to pull up stumps.
Adrian Newey left to join Aston Martin, Rob Marshall left to join McLaren, Jonathan Wheatley left to join Sauber, and Will Courtenay is McLaren bound.
Red Bull has a 1000-strong staff, and while three or four men only represent a sliver of the workforce, the most senior were Newy, Marshall, Wheatley, and Horner.
Red Bull has suffered a downward trend in the wake of the aforementioned trio leaving. Management must see Horner’s exit as a way to reverse the spiral, and appease Verstappen amid rumours he wants out.
Where there’s smoke, there’s fire – and perhaps Verstappen can see the ship starting to sink.
A statement from Verstappen’s manager Raymond Vermeulen on face value seemed ambiguous at best. However, that last line could prove telling.
“We were informed in advance by Red Bull’s management that this decision had been made,” said Vermeulen.
“It’s up to Red Bull to provide further explanation regarding the reasons.
“We continue to look at the sporting side and are looking for more performance so we can return to the top. In that respect, nothing will change.”
The “we” in this case is ‘Camp Verstappen’, and that they are “looking for more performance” doesn’t necessarily mean at Red Bull.
The downfall of Red Bull can be traced back to Dietrich Mateschitz’s death. He was the czar who kept Horner and Helmut Marko in line. Without him, the two camps have been left to feud.
“What’s absolutely clear is that the Verstappen camp have been lobbing in hand grenades for quite some months now, and some of them have gone off,” said Martin Brundle on The F1 Show.
“It’s been pretty relentless in that respect and I think that at times Max’s dad Jos has made it absolutely clear that Christian shouldn’t be leading the company and leading the team.
“I would say yes, they’ve played a key role in Christian’s exit. But, as I say, unless you’re in the office behind closed doors, then you don’t know for certain.
“There are certain things I do know and certain things I have seen and heard that makes me thing they were pretty involved in this decision.”
Now Horner is gone and the Marko-aligned Verstappen camp could have full control over Red Bull’s destiny. So will the Dutchman stay?
Ultimately, Formula 1 is performance based and it is struggling against McLaren, Ferrari, and Mercedes.
Red Bull has a new engine supplier in Ford coming next year. That’s a gamble for Verstappen, and one he mightn’t be willing to take. Equally, he would be hedging his bets on Mercedes having the complete package if he switched camps. On the engine front, there’s no silver bullet.
In any case, the Verstappens have got their way as far as Horner’s exit goes and will rule the roost with Marko.
As it stands, Verstappen is contracted through to 2028. Performance clauses based on where Verstappen is at the midway point of this year (third or lower in the drivers’ championship) open the door for an early exit.
Surely it’s a case of whether Verstappen sees potential in the team long-term, and if rumours of a switch to Mercedes are to be believed, then the four-time world champion must have his doubts. Or, it’s all just politicking and a game of contract cat and mouse.
Nevertheless, ex-Formula 1 driver and Sky Sports F1 commentator Martin Brundle believes Horner’s exit means Verstappen stays.
“We know that Max has an exit clause based on where he is in the world championship at the end of this month,” said Brundle.
“Does this mean he’s more likely to go, more likely to stay? I can only surmise that it is more likely to stay at the team.”
Ted Kravitz added: “I think it is more likely [that Verstappen stays], certainly for 2026. Although, we kind of came to that conclusion anyway at Silverstone.
“Certainly, George [Russell] is going to get another years deal and then Max is going to see how it works.
“The crucial question is what will the Red Bull Power Trains engine be like next year? Will it be good enough for Max to think ‘okay, I can live with this’ with three times the amount of hybrid recovery and power to be used than what they have now.
“Mercedes have always been very good on the power unit side. So Red Bull Technologies and their powertrains will have to be absolutely tip top.”
Perhaps it’s not a question of Verstappen staying for 2026, but whether the door is open to make a move in 2027.
On the Red Flags Podcast, former Haas team principal Guenther Steiner downplayed the likelihood of a Verstappen move to Mercedes for 2026.
“Max will not go anywhere next year,” he said.
“I didn’t say forever. Also, how could they replace George with Max and leave Kimi Antonelli there if Mercedes wants to win a world championship?
“Kimi did one good race in Canada. The rest, how many good races did he have? Not many. You take George out, who is doing a good job, like him or not, he’s doing a good job.
“He won a race, so he’s obviously a good leader there. Take him out to put Max in… I think they would need to take Kimi out to put Max in. I would understand that.
“I think Max, if he goes to Mercedes next year, how does he know that the Mercedes next year will be good?”
Steiner said all the rumours could simply be gamesmanship between the big-name drivers.
“I think they want to give George a one-year contract to have the possibility of having Max in 2027 — and George obviously says ‘I don’t want a one-year contract, I want three years’ or something like this,” Steiner explained.
“Or George is playing about money and Toto just wants to put the heat onto him. There could be a lot of things why this is playing out like this. But I think the biggest thing is, I would think Max says ‘In 2026, I stay with Red Bull, see where everybody ends up performance-wise, and then maybe I make a change for 2027’ because I think he can do that.
“Of course, Mercedes needs to have a place for him in 2027 and obviously Toto is putting his money on Kimi that in 2027 he will be good because he’s had two years in Formula 1. I guess the offer for George is a one-year contract.”
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