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A poor season for Sergio Perez has left the Mexican staring at the door in Milton Keynes, whether he likes it or not.
Team boss Christian Horner has stopped defending him, and offered assurances only through to the end of Sunday’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
After that, a decision will be made on Red Bull Racing’s drivers.
Perez does not seem to feature among those plans, with suggestions he’ll be offered an ambassadorial role with Red Bull if he wants it.
If not, he’ll simply be ushered out the door; the easy way, or the hard way if necessary.
With the Red Bull Racing drive then open, it’s a question of who is best placed to fill it.
There are three possible candidates though only two seem realistic.
Franco Colapinto was thought to be a strong contender, initially for Red Bull Racing and more recently for RB, but a spate of crashes in Sao Paulo and then Las Vegas delivered a hammer blow to his chances.
He remains a bright prospect however, and the old saying goes that a fast driver can be calmed down, but a slow one can’t be made quicker.
Colapinto is rapid suggesting that, should he be calmed down, he could be a very handy racing driver. He also brings with him significant funding from South America, a useful market given the blow Red Bull is about to receive in that region.
The issue is, however, he’s entered his ‘crash’ phase at the wrong time.
His bright early races have been overshadowed by a period of inevitability for any youngster – Oscar Piastri seemingly excluded.
As rookie drivers grow in confidence they take more risk and, invariably, overstep.
That process is almost universal and a phase even Verstappen went through. For Colapinto, it’s arrived at a costly time and comes at a point when Red Bull’s appetite for that type of risk is low.
Especially when similar performance is available without such high risks.
Yuki Tsunoda is now a seasoned veteran with four years of F1 experience under his belt and has shown himself to be fast. He arguably ended Daniel Ricciardo’s career.
Long thought an outside chance for the Red Bull Racing drive, simply because he doesn’t fit the usual ‘Red Bull driver’ mould, he has more recently become a serious contender.
Whether that’s endorsement of Tsunoda’s personal development of the team’s desperation to replace an under-performing Perez is open for interpretation.
On pace alone there is little doubt the Japanese driver can do the job, but that isn’t the only element.
His ability to work with engineers and Verstappen, work with the media and more are all considerations that are wrapped around that on track requirement.
It is those factors which seem to be holding the 24-year-old back.
The other option is the second RB driver, Liam Lawson.
The young New Zealander was substituted in for Ricciardo following the Singapore Grand Prix and has made a solid enough account of himself.
The claim from within the Red Bull camp is that he has been performing well, with some suggestions he’s even out-performing Tsunoda.
On the raw numbers, that hasn’t necessarily been the case, but he’s been there or thereabouts which, for a driver with only 11 grands prix to his name is a positive start.
Red Bull will also have more data points to review than simply final results or lap times which will offer it a different perspective.
Lawson would be a greater risk than Tsunoda simply due to the fact he is a comparative rookie, but the early indications have been positive.
He also looks more a Red Bull driver than Tsunoda, for whatever little that is worth.
Interestingly, there was briefly a wildcard name thrown into the mix: Carlos Sainz.
Though signed at Williams, it’s thought a clause exists in that deal that would allow him to leave should a better offer come along.
For a time he was considered at Red Bull Racing, but that has since faded and he will remain at the Grove squad for 2025.
There have also been suggestions of a Ricciardo return, though those to are well wide of the mark.
Hence Christian Horner and Helmut Marko appear to have the choice of replacing Perez with Franco Colapinto, Yuki Tsunoda, or Liam Lawson.
In this week’s Pirtek Poll we ask you to put yourself in their shoes. Who would you go with?
