Yes, Will Brown could yet fumble and lose the Supercars Championship to teammate Broc Feeney. But his 180-point advantage is such that Feeney can hardly win it on his own terms.
Even if Feeney wins both races, Brown can cruise home in 14th place on each day and secure the crown. Odds are it’ll be over by Saturday night.
It’s hard to cop any marketing efforts that trumpet this as a title fight. In Feeney’s words, he’s a “very long shot” at the championship.
The same was largely the case last year – which was the first time since 2018 that another driver was even in mathematical contention heading into the final round.
Only a handful of championship deciders in the Supercars era have involved the combatants actually racing it out for victory. And boy were those memorable.
The 2024 equation is the exact argument why Supercars badly needs the Finals Series that it recently announced for next season, to the chagrin of much of the fanbase.
Contrast this year’s scenario to the prospect of four drivers – in 2024’s case likely Brown, Feeney, Cam Waters and Matt Payne – heading to Adelaide separated by a matter of points.
Add in the spice of drivers racing for Finals places and then navigating through the knockout rounds and the move looks like a no-brainer.
The biggest counter-argument to the Finals, though, is also exemplified by the way the 2024 campaign has played out.
Brown has produced an utterly brilliant season. His run of 17 podiums from 22 races to date has included a trip to the rostrum at least once at every single event.
His rally of four wins is one shy of Feeney’s but has included victories on all three tyre compounds.
He took the points lead by winning Race 4 of the season back in March and has played it smart in recent races. No driver has come close for consistency.
Making it even more extraordinary is the fact Brown has done this in his first year at Triple Eight; the team again showing its class with the way it’s integrated him so smoothly.
Brown has – so far at least – put together every bit of what is traditionally described as a ‘championship year’.
On that basis it would seem absurd for him to start the finale almost neck-and-neck with his rivals, having to race it out with the standings reset.
So where does that leave us?
Fans and members of the industry alike have no choice but to park those long-engrained views of what a championship year – and therefore a worthy champion – is.
Those thoughts are after all based on tradition. It’s right because it’s always been that way. Well since it moved from a single race to a series back in the 1960s, anyway.
Just in the same way it wouldn’t feel right if the AFL or NRL ditched their final series and awarded their premiership cups after the regular season.
In opting for entertainment over tradition, Supercars has taken a gamble and risks losing rusted-on supporters.
But it clearly feels the potential upside is worth it, when negotiating a new broadcast deal.
The risk of maintaining status quo is being left behind in the increasingly competitive sports and entertainment battlegrounds.
There are, of course, other issues to consider when assessing the merits of the Finals format.
It is somewhat awkward that Supercars’ great Finals announcement has been followed by the shining motorsport example – NASCAR’s Playoffs format – coming in for some serious scrutiny.
Not only has its form driver of the season, Kyle Larson, not made the final four, but the very integrity of the series has been called into question, most recently through manufacturer-orchestrated tactics.
The former is an issue that Supercars has tried to hedge against with its system of bonus points to help the season-long high achievers progress.
Whether Supercars has its balance right is only going to be evident once we see a season or two play out.
As for the manufacturer manipulation?
Recent events of Ford teams protesting other Ford teams suggests the current Supercars culture – and indeed level of manufacturer investment – is a long way from what it is in NASCAR.
The two series are also poles apart in how they apply their racing rules.
There is undoubtedly more chance of incidents, controversy and surprise championship outcomes under the Finals format.
But Supercars – as well as the broadcasters and sponsors that pay the bills – will be seeing that as a feature, not a fault.
They’ll also enjoy the build-up to the 2025 Adelaide Grand Final avoiding the terms “long shot” and “mathematical contention”.
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