The Sprint Cup will almost certainly end up in Broc Feeney’s event, barring a major upset in Ipswich this weekend.
His current lead over Triple Eight teammate Will Brown is 220 points while Matt Payne is the only other driver still in contention, another 15 points behind.
It could feasibly be wrapped up after the first race if Feeney is able to outscore both Brown and Payne by more than 10 points.
The outcome of the Sprint Cup will make history is two ways. Firstly, the crowning of the inaugural Sprint Cup champion. And secondly, the first driver to be officially locked in to the all-new Finals System.
Except, both the numbers and history suggest that a number of drivers are well and truly locked in already.
Until the eve of the Bathurst 1000 the points permutations are incredibly complicated. Supercars itself fell into the trap of oversimplifying the equation, publishing a calculation implying driver needs to be 601 points clear of 11th place after Ipswich to be locked into finals.
That, however, suggests that nine other drivers can all bank 600 points across the endurance races at The Bend and Bathurst.
Instead the convoluted cut-off depends on specific drivers behind out-scoring to a certain number across the next three rounds.
As it stands, Chaz Mostert sits in fifth place. To be knocked out, six drivers would each have to out-score him by 398 points in the next three events (where a maximum of 915 are on offer).
And not just any six drivers. It would need to be those currently placed sixth to 11th.
Recent history doesn’t support someone falling from that high. In the last five years, the closest to a change that seismic in the top 10 across three rounds before the Bathurst 1000 is Will Davison falling from sixth after Sydney last year to 10th after the Great Race.
In fact, across five years, the furtherest anyone has fallen from inside the top 10 to out of it in that 900-point period is from ninth place.
That discounts the new-found importance of making the Final Series which will clearly see an upswing in motivation to either get in, or stay in, to that critical 10.
There is also the Endurance Cup which comes with its own automatic Finals Series berth, which could move the line to ninth if someone outside the top 10 in points wins it.
That, too, is highly unlikely given the points weighting, and the likelihood that outscoring everybody across the two enduros would propel any driver organically into the top 10.
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