Red Bull is expected to announce its full 2026 line-up on Tuesday, with multiple sources indicating Isack Hadjar will be promoted to partner Max Verstappen at Red Bull Racing, while British rookie Arvid Lindblad steps into an F1 seat with Racing Bulls.
The final place is set to go to Lawson, who has rebuilt his standing within the organisation after a turbulent year.
His expected retention follows weeks of internal debate over which two of the three drivers – Lawson, Yuki Tsunoda or Lindblad – would get the remaining seats.
Although Tsunoda was initially considered a frontrunner after taking over Lawson’s Red Bull Racing drive at round three, his inconsistent form — combined with the structure of Red Bull’s long-term engine plans — ultimately worked against him.
Tsunoda hinted during the Qatar weekend that he “knew something he couldn’t say yet” as reports emerged that Lawson had been preferred. Dutch publication De Telegraaf reported that Red Bull had already settled on the 23-year-old Kiwi, a position now widely understood to be accurate.
The move caps a tumultuous season for Lawson, who was dropped by the senior team after just two races as Verstappen’s team-mate early in the year.
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He responded with a steady campaign at Racing Bulls, scoring seven points finishes — including a standout fifth in Azerbaijan — while gradually reaffirming his reputation inside the Red Bull system.
Lawson told Speedcafe in October that his solid results were his key leverage in the fight for a 2026 seat.
“Those kinds of results are what we need, especially at this part of the year,” he said.
“But I think at the same time, the decision’s not down to me, so all I can control is the performances I have on track and that’s just what I’m focused on trying to repeat.”
He backed up those claims by telling media last month he had “absolutely no idea” when a decision would come, acknowledging that both Red Bull squads were locked in tight constructors’ battles and keen to avoid distractions.
He stressed that surviving a rookie season is often the hardest step for any newcomer.
“Your first year in F1 is the most important,” he said. “It is really the year where you improve, whether you stay in the sport.”
As Lawson edged closer to selection, Tsunoda’s position grew increasingly precarious.
Despite flashes of speed — including outqualifying Verstappen in the Qatar sprint and running within two or three tenths of him at recent events — he was unable to convert his pace into consistent results.
“I’ve done what I could do,” Tsunoda said, reflecting on his season.
“Especially the last four races, the team gave me a lot of support and able to drive with [an] almost identical car to Max. I proved a lot of things.”
He pointed to multiple practice sessions where he had run ahead of Verstappen, adding: “I’m showing what I can do. I don’t think with my seat, [other drivers were] consistently able to drive this close.”
Red Bull is reportedly still weighing whether to retain Tsunoda in a reserve role split across both teams, particularly as negotiations with Honda continue over a Testing of Previous Cars (TPC) engine deal.
The FIA’s recent ruling requiring manufacturers to supply engines for TPC running — with no price cap — has made that relationship strategically important.
Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko told Autosport that Red Bull and Honda were “on the right track to resolving this issue” following discussions in Qatar.
A continued Honda partnership would allow the organisation to expand its testing programme for Lindblad and other junior drivers, while also giving Tsunoda a possible platform to remain involved.
Team principal Laurent Mekies, asked about the incoming announcement, said only that Red Bull would “stick to our plan” and reveal its full line-up on Tuesday.
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