The warning signs for Supercars from NASCAR playoffs

To say the NASCAR fan base is disillusioned with the current playoffs format would be an understatement. Even some of its teams and drivers have grown tired of the system which does not reward consistency but champions individual moments of brilliance.

The final elimination race at Martinsville Speedway was a barnburner between the front runners. All in a do-or-die position to make it into the Championship 4 race, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and eventual winner Ryan Blaney fought to the bitter end.

It was a classic. The race was strategy-heavy on a circuit that promoted overtaking with multiple lanes, but that was completely overshadowed by desperation and questionable gamesmanship.

Whether by design or not, some Chevrolet drivers seemingly had a pact to protect playoff driver William Byron from being overtaken in the dying laps of the race to keep him in the best possible position to advance to the final.

At the other end of the order, Toyota driver Christopher Bell found himself one position away from advancing to the Championship 4 and on the last lap made a mistake passing fellow Camry driver Bubba Wallace for 18th, slid up into the wall, and rode the barriers to the chequered flag.

NASCAR penalised him for a safety violation and Bell fell from fourth to fifth in the standings, handing Byron the last playoff position to advance.

The #Championship4 is set in the NASCAR Cup Series!@joeylogano, @TylerReddick, @Blaney and @WilliamByron will race for the championship in Phoenix. pic.twitter.com/skrtK8MIEU

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) November 3, 2024

NASCAR’s brutal playoffs reality

The win-and-you’re-in mantra has created a monster. Come November 11, the NASCAR Cup Series will be won by either Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, or Joey Logano.

Kyle Larson, who was eliminated from the playoffs after Martinsville, has the most wins of any driver this season. Larson accumulated the most bonus points of any driver but bombed out after finishing 11th, 13th, and third across Las Vegas, Homestead-Miami, and Martinsville.

Chase Elliott has the best average finishing position of any full-time driver across 35 of 36 races and Christopher Bell is a close second. They’ve both been eliminated.

This year’s playoffs have exemplified why wins matter. Logano, Reddick, and Blaney all locked themselves in with wins, leaving just one place up for grabs on points. Byron was ultimately the most consistent in the Round of 8.

Blaney delivered when it mattered most. Few can say he doesn’t deserve a shot at the title but even he was pegged to the bottom of the playoff standings after Homestead-Miami. Momentum will have him pinned as one of the favourites in Phoenix.

Few could argue Reddick doesn’t deserve to be in the final four. He won the regular season and earned his shot at the title with a walk-off victory at Homestead-Miami. His car blew up at Martinsville, but he need not worry having already booked his spot for Phoenix.

Whether Joey Logano “deserves” to be among the championship combatants is up for debate. His regular season was among one of the worst of the Top 16 playoff qualifiers having run well outside the top 10 on points.

Like it or not, a shock victory at Atlanta to get him into the Round of 8 and another surprise win at Las Vegas on an aggressive fuel-saving strategy has him in the Championship 4 race.

Logano’s Championship 4 berth has been one of the most contentious topics of this year’s playoffs given the demise of fan favourite Elliott and the most successful driver in Larson.

Wild that Larson isn’t running for a championship after a year like he had. Sometimes I understand the playoffs but this one is hard to process honestly.

— Sage Karam (@SageKaram) November 3, 2024

This should be the last straw on the camel’s back for the playoffs. https://t.co/j4Z5MSGkjo

— Brad Keselowski (@keselowski) November 3, 2024

In the simplest terms, if NASCAR employed a system whereby the champion was decided on points alone without a playoffs format, Larson would lead Elliott and Bell. Fourth through sixth would be occupied by Byron, Reddick, and Blaney. Logano would be 14th overall.

Denny Hamlin, who was knocked out after Martinsville, said the fallout from Logano winning the 2024 title would be huge.

“It just emphasises the win and you’re in format,” he said on his Actions Detrimental podcast.

“Joey obviously got in on fuel mileage. There’s no way around it. They weren’t fast enough to win so they found another way to win which was through the fuel mileage.

“That takes a spot from some of your big wins and your most dominating drivers of the year are out because of one race. This is the downside to the format.

“I don’t want to say there’s anything wrong with the format, you just can’t have two bad races in the Round of 8” -Kyle Larson eliminated from the playoffs.

Also hear from Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott:

📹@m_massie22 #NASCAR pic.twitter.com/OcXXevlvkY

— Frontstretch (@Frontstretch) November 3, 2024

“There is very few people out there that believe this format rewards the most deserving champion in our series. I think that’s why you’ve seen a shift in driver mentality to win races.

“I can tell you this, and it’s not their fault or his fault or anyone’s fault, but if Joey Logano wins this title, there is going to be a wrath on social media about this format. It already is.”

What it means for Supercars

Supercars has to be prepared for the almost inevitable fallout from its playoffs next year.

There stands a very real possibility that the driver who ends the regular season in 10th could become the champion. That is by design and is ultimately no different to other sports that use a playoff format.

It’s worth noting that the Supercars playoffs format is different from NASCAR in so much that only winning the regular season title grants you automatic entry into the playoffs.

The ‘win-and-you’re-in’ mantra does not apply to regular season races and only applies to the playoff race for the top 10 drivers in the points who qualify.

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The cream rises to the top, but there’s every opportunity for a repeat of the 2023 final in Adelaide where eventual champion Brodie Kostecki didn’t stand on the podium, Shane van Gisbergen had a double DNF, Will Brown crashed and the winners were Cameron Waters and Matt Payne – notwithstanding questions over parity at the time.

Like NASCAR, Supercars has implemented a bonus points system to reward the best drivers. However, in the case of Larson, it’s evident that even the best can fall foul to the system.

What sets motorsport’s playoffs and other playoffs apart is that outside forces can ultimately curtail your tile bid on track.

The roadblock by Austin Dillon and Ross Chastain to put fellow Chevrolet driver William Byron in the best possible position to make the playoffs could conceivably be repeated in Supercars.

That’s a very real possibility and one Supercars should consider. How it polices it is up to the powers that be.

In any case, Supercars should look to NASCAR for some lessons and get ahead of the curve before it finds itself in a similar spot.

2025 Repco Supercars Championship: