2023 championship position: 5th, 280 points
Speedcafe’s 2024 championship prediction: 5th
Through the 2023 F1 season there were a handful of key storylines, and one of them was the dramatic rise of Aston Martin.
The Silverstone-based team was impressive during pre-season testing and translated that into race pace in the first half of the season.
Midway through the year there was a slump, and others introduced developments that saw them leapfrog the green team, but that does not diminish its achievement.
Significant work has been going on behind the scenes with the construction of what is regarded as a best-in-class facility – replacing the building Eddie Jordan constructed in the early 1990s when the operation (then Jordan) entered F1.
And there’s more to come as there’s a new wind tunnel in the works.
That remains a little way away, so the team will see no benefit from that this season. However, it shows the commitment owner Lawrence Stroll has to the operation.
Stroll has been a significant boost for the team, which came close to extinction in 2018.
But arguably his son, Lance Stroll, was its weakest link in 2024.
Stroll mustered just 74 points versus the 206 of his counterpart Fernando Alonso, which left Aston Martin fifth in the constructors’ championship, 22 points back from McLaren.
Given the head start it had to the year over the papaya team, it should have maintained its points advantage to season’s end, even if it did slip behind on track.
Aston Martin was outdeveloped by its rivals and dropped behind McLaren, Mercedes, and Ferrari.
It was legacy of the team’s midfield experience; it was simply unaccustomed to competing at the pointy end, where marginal gains can have a significant impact.
But it’s a lesson Dan Fallows and his technical team will have learned and, armed with that knowledge, can be expected to address for 2024.
Does that mean Aston Martin will be again the team nipping at the heels of Red Bull Racing in Bahrain? It seems unlikely.
There is a degree of convergence taking place which has seen teams, over the past 12 months or so, progressively move towards a ‘Red Bull’ aerodynamic package.
That is a state of affairs that will play to the strengths of the bigger, more established teams like Red Bull Racing, Ferrari, Mercedes, and McLaren as they have greater experience working within those fine margins.
Aston Martin will have much of what’s needed, but it’s not all there just yet, and the team is inexperienced in running at the front of a motor race.
With stable rules and, theoretically, fewer opportunities to make significant gains in development, a more traditional pecking order is likely to materialise.
For that reason, the Silverstone squad will do well to hold station in fifth place in 2024, but encouragingly there are some very positive signs for the future.
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